On Monday the Department of Energy issued a stark warning: The number of blackouts could increase by 100 times if the US continues to shutter reliable power sources and fails to add additional firm capacity.
The report is timely. The AI energy nexus is in full effect, and if the US wants to lead in AI innovation it must have the physical infrastructure to support its energy intense compute ambitions. The US may have the edge in chips and compute currently, but China is not far behind and it has spent the last decade building out its energy infrastructure at an unprecedented rate.
China should not be underestimated, it has the talent and it has the energy infrastructure, generating ~130% more electricity than the US. While currently only 5% of that energy is derived from nuclear, the CCP committed to build 150 new reactors over the next 15 years in its14th Five-Year Plan (2021–2025), reaching 200 GW of nuclear power by 2035—enough to power over a dozen cities the size of Beijing.
In this context, we can understand the US’s urgency to shore up its aging fleet, build new capacity and embrace its legacy energy infrastructure in oil, gas and coal.
“In the coming years, America’s reindustrialization and the AI race will require a significantly larger supply of around-the-clock, reliable, and uninterrupted power. President Trump’s administration is committed to advancing a strategy of energy addition, and supporting all forms of energy that are affordable, reliable, and secure. If we are going to keep the lights on, win the AI race, and keep electricity prices from skyrocketing, the United States must unleash American energy.”
The average age of U.S. commercial nuclear power reactors is about 42 years. 41 reactors (20Mwe) have been shutdown to date and only two (Vogtle 3 & 4) have been build in the last 15 years, 2.2 GWe.
“DOE’s analysis shows that, if current retirement schedules and incremental additions remain unchanged, most regions will face unacceptable reliability risks within five years and the Nation’s electrical power grid will be unable to meet expected demand for AI, data centers, manufacturing and industrialization while keeping the cost of living low for all Americans. Staying on the present course would undermine U.S. economic growth, national security, and leadership in emerging technologies.”
The US executive orders outlines an aggressive plan to reinvigorate its nuclear base. The orders aim is to increase nuclear energy capacity from 100GW to 400GW by 2050, including 5 gigawatt of power uprates to existing nuclear reactors and 10 new large reactors under construction by 2030.
Baseload energy is key. Baseload energy comes from power plants like nuclear, coal, or gas that run continuously to meet the grid’s constant electricity needs. These plants use heavy spinning turbines that store energy as they turn, which helps stabilise the grid when there's a sudden change in supply or demand. This built-in “inertia” acts like shock absorbers, keeping the system steady and preventing blackouts.
Without enough baseload power, especially as more renewables like wind and solar are added (which don’t provide this spinning energy), the grid can become less stable and more prone to disruptions.
Spain's major blackout on April 28, 2025, is directly related to the issue of grid inertia. Around midday, a sudden loss of 15 gigawatts of electricity generation—about 60% of Spain's power at the time—triggered a cascading failure across the Iberian Peninsula, affecting Spain, Portugal, and parts of France.
At the time, Spain's electricity mix was heavily reliant on renewable sources, accounting for 78% of electricity generation, with solar alone contributing nearly 60%. By contrast, conventional technologies, such as gas-fired and nuclear power plants, comprised only around 15% of the total generation mix.
While environmentally beneficial, these sources lack the physical spinning mass of traditional power plants like nuclear or gas, which provide inertia to stabilise the grid during sudden changes. Without sufficient inertia, the grid couldn't absorb the shock of the sudden generation loss, leading to rapid frequency drops and widespread outages.
The DOE report calls for immediate action and recognition that the status quo is unsustainable.
Moreover, with each hyperscale data centre using as much power as 80,000 homes, the strain on grid infrastructure could turn into a stark competition between households and hyperscalers for reliable electricity.
“Allowing 104 GW of firm generation to retire by 2030—without timely replacement—could lead to significant outages when weather conditions do not accommodate wind and solar generation. Modelling shows annual outage hours could increase from single digits today to more than 800 hours per year. Such a surge would leave millions of households and businesses vulnerable. We must renew a focus on firm generation and continue to reverse radical green ideology in order to address this risk.”
The convergence of AI-driven energy demand, hyperscale infrastructure growth, and an aging power grid presents the United States with a defining challenge, and an opportunity. As the DOE has warned, the stakes are no longer theoretical: without a decisive course correction, the U.S. risks not only routine blackouts, but also falling behind in the global race for technological and industrial leadership. While China scales its energy backbone and aggressively expands nuclear capacity, America must move swiftly to reinforce its baseload foundation, modernise aging assets, and restore grid resilience. This is not simply about avoiding outages, it is about ensuring that the lights stay on in data centres, homes, and factories alike. In an era where compute is power, energy security has become national security. The U.S. must unleash its full spectrum of energy assets—nuclear, gas, and even coal—not just to keep pace, but to lead. Anything less invites both economic vulnerability and strategic decline.
